India but must be prepared in the instance

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Last updated: July 23, 2019

India hasencountered different types of violent conflict due to caste, religion,ethnicity, language and regional loyalties. The nation’s leaders have been so pre-occupiedensuring the country’s survival that they have failed to establish a long- termpolicy for national security. George Tanham (1992) pronounced that “Indian elites show little evidence of havingthought coherently andsystematically about strategy” and that “no serious strategic planning institutions, ifthey ever existed, have survived in independent India, and none exists today”. Instead Indian governments have favored apeaceful, non-aggressive approach. However, today India is experiencing threatsboth externally, from hostile neighbors including Pakistan and China, inaddition to internal menaces from left wings extremists and other terroristorganizations. In order to combat this, India need to consider expandingmilitary expenditure. This would include increasing the size of the nucleararsenal to deter external threats from Pakistan and China.

India does not needto go to war as this would represent a zero sum game, but must be prepared in theinstance that Pakistan or China decide to take offensive action. Furthermorethe country must invest more heavily in internal security in the form of statepolice and security in order to control and prevent terrorist activities aswell as improving the response when such incidences do occur. Greater investmentin human and technological intelligence is also required in order to seek outpotential threats and help prevent future occurrences.  Followingthe dissolution of the British Empire after World War II, the Indianindependence act, 1947 led to the creation of India, with a Hindu majority (79.8%)and Pakistan, with an Islamic majority (96.28%). Internal security concerns inIndia have been exacerbated by Pakistan, who have developed a foreign policy promotingthe Islamic religion through aggressive overseas policies.  Former Pakistan President Pervez Musharrafadmitted that Islamabad supported and trained groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba to carry out terrorist activitiesin the Kashmir region of India.

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“In 1990s the freedom struggle began inKashmir… At that time Lashkar-e-Taiba and 11 or 12 other organizations wereformed.

We supported them and trained them as they were fighting in Kashmir atthe cost of their lives,”. More recently Pakistan were responsible for the 2008Mumbai attacks in which they supported Islamic based terrorist organizationLashkar-e-Taiba who carried out 12 shootings over a four-day period leading to 166deaths. Furthermore, through the Inter-Service Intelligence, Pakistan regularlyinject fake Indian currency, via Nepal, with the goal of unmining the localeconomy.  Furthermore they have helped tosmuggle terrorists into the country. The theory of Samuel Huntington statesthat people identify themselves based on their faith and beliefs.  People from (minority) t religions are often discriminatedagainst and do not have recourse to the “rule of law” to resolve political andeconomic differences. In the case in which the country is run by a Hindimajority, the minority (Islamic population) are discriminated against andpolicies are directed in favor of the majority. Additionally, Pakistan boasts a greater nuclear arsenal thanIndia.

  It is estimated to possess100-120 nuclear weapons, whereas India has a slightly smaller inventory with90-110 nuclear weapons. In the absence of nuclear supremacy, India will have tocope with nuclear blackmail from Chinese supported Pakistan due to a largermilitancy capacity giving them greater international influence. Therefore, anincrease in their nuclear arsenal is required to reduce the threat fromIslamabad, reducing their vulnerability. As a consequence Pakistan has a largerinfluence over international affairs and is able to impose their own politicalagenda to exploit India. However, if India was to develop a larger conventionalcapacity, then it would prevent any potential adversary winning any advantage bygoing to war. Pakistan would therefore experience a zero sum gain and the costswould equal the benefit and therefore they would be deterred from any militaryaction. This can be seen in regard to the Cuban incident of 1962, when Cuba’spossession of nuclear weapons deterred western countries such as America adoptinga more aggressive stance, since they did not want to experience a backlash interms of nuclear warfare.

However, India does not possess such militaryprotection and with Pakistan unlikely to compromise on their policies, if asituation in which Pakistan was to take offensive action against India thenthey would have no option but to rely on assistance from external forces. Itwould also mean that India are unable to retaliate against Pakistan if theywere to carry out offensive operations, increasing the likelihood of such eventsoccurring. This coupled with the threat of Pakistan’s collusion withChina poses a threat to the well-being of the nation. The Sino-Pakistan agreementguarantees Pakistani territorial integrity. India’s military expenditure stoodat $55.9 billion as of 2016, whereas Pakistan’s military expenditure onlystands at $8.

78 billion. Therefore, it is believed that Pakistan would not beable to wage a war against India, unless it obtained financial and militarybacking from China, who spent $146 billion in military expenditure in 2016. Togetherthis would result in devastation for India. As any major changes to Pakistan’sPolitical point of view in relation to India is seen as unlikely, India willhave to continue to anticipate security and terror activities undertaken byPakistan with the assistance of its benefactor of China. Therefore, India hasto invest in military expenditure in order to deter China from aiding Islamabadand build up a nuclear arsenal so large that is deemed a significant threat. Asthe threat is derived from the nuclear capable nation (China) and in order forthem to be deterred, India need to bridge the gap between their own and China’smilitary capacity. As Swaine and Tellis stated that “the continued increase inChina’s relative economic and military capabilities … if sustained over manyyears, will certainly produce a redefinition of Beijing’s strategic orientation… that directly or indirectly challenge many of the existing equities” The weak political system, coupled with controversiallegislation has led to violence erupting as a result of differentview-points.

  This situation has beenfurther exacerbated by propaganda and ideological support provided to theminority group from external forces such as Pakistan. In addition, a consortiumof revolutionary groups have formed aiming to depose the government. Violentconflicts are based upon caste, religion, ethnicity, language and regional loyalties. As a resultof a weak policing system in certain states in India, a sense of lawlessness hasdeveloped.

This has led to an increase in support for these groups who offerprotection and order to the supporters, who do not receive this from the statethrough appropriate policing. This has led to wide scale crime, which isprevalent as shown by the Indian Penal code which has seen crime rates increaseby over 250% from 54,287 in 2012 to 191,377 in 2015. Even though there has beenan increase in the number of crimes reported, a report from the National Crime Records Bureau stated that in 2013the conviction rate in India stood at 40.2% (2013), with areas such as Biharwith a conviction rate as low as 10%. With the threat of punishment disappearing,there has been a systemic increase organized crime in these areas.

For many ofthe revolutionary groups, extortion is the major source of funds.  Former Home secretary G K Pillai stated thatthe Left wing extremists funds are believed to be a minimum of 2,000 crores($20 billion), in which the majority was raised through extortion. 

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